Will the debate over a stimulating check of more than $2,000 help the Democrats in Georgia?

Congressional Democrats are Push to provide US$2,000 to most Americans The stimulus check believes that this is a quick and direct way to help millions of Americans cope with the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.President Trump Supports payments of USD 2,000, But most Congressional Republicans don’tDue to opposition from the Republican Party in Congress, a $2,000 check is unlikely to become law.But the Democrats think they have Win the election Before the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia next week.

Why many pollsters did not participate in the Georgia runoff

Public opinion does seem to be on the side of the Democratic Party. According to a poll conducted by leftists from December 22 to 28, 78% of Americans said they supported these $2,000 stimulus checks, while 17% opposed them. Progress data. Similarly, A survey conducted by Business Insider and Survey Monkey It was discovered on December 21 that 62% of Americans said that the $600 stimulus check used in a recent bill was not enough; 76% said that payments should exceed $1,000.

[Why A Split Verdict In Georgia Isn’t That Crazy]

So the Democrats are working hard to promote this issue. Georgia Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock Strongly accept a payment plan of USD 2,000. Their Republican opponents Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue are the same Suggest that they support payment. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Set up procedural barriers to prevent payment of $2,000 From passing the Senate, giving Osov with Warnock There is an opportunity to show that Loeffler and Perdue are barriers to payment because they support McConnell’s continued leadership as the majority party.

So all this seems to be a good thing for the Democratic Party, right? Maybe.Democrats are pushing a popular idea Elections that look very close, And the Republicans are preventing it. This question is likely to help Warnock and Ossoff in Georgia next week. But we should not be so sure, there are several reasons…

First, It is not clear that voters care so much about policy when deciding whom to vote for.

The most reliable predictor of how Americans will vote is partisanship: Republican-leaning voters support Republican candidates, while Democratic-leaning voters support Democratic candidates. Of course, these party labels and identities contain ideological and policy implications: at least in terms of rhetoric, the Republicans are more cautious than the Democrats on large, broad-based spending plans. But these hints did not seem to promote voting. There are many examples where a party promotes unpopular ideas without its voters turning to the other side.For example, the Republican Party’s 2017 and 2018 agendas tried to Repeal Obamacare with Tax cuts for businesses, Quite unpopular among Republican voters, but those voters Still overwhelmingly supporting Republican candidates in mid-2018.

Data for Progress polls show that 73% of Republicans across the country support a $2,000 payment, and 52% of them strongly support them. Based on these figures, it is almost certain that most Republicans in Georgia support payments.Indeed, a DFP poll of possible voters in Georgia A survey conducted between November 15 and 20 found that 63% of voters in the state said they were more likely to support candidates who would pay $1,200 to the majority of Americans as part of the COVID-19 relief plan. The 63% figure also shows that these payments are popular and supported by ordinary Republican voters.

But because of this problem, many Republicans are unlikely to support the Democratic candidate in Georgia. Yes, the two elections seem to be very close, so even small changes in voting preferences are important.But in such a close election, if either Osoff or Warnock wins by a narrow margin, I would hesitate to attribute the victory to the Democratic Party’s support for this stimulus payment and McConnell’s opposition. Not such as The Democratic Party’s strong voting action in the state, Loeffler and Perdue as candidates’ weaknesses and Georgia’s growing liberalism.

[Related: Why Georgia Isn’t Like The Other Battleground States]

What about swing voters/independents and others who are not necessarily connected to one of the two parties?Well, the evidence shows These types of voters do not necessarily have clear policy preferences with Don’t pay too much attention to politicsSo maybe this stimulating debate convinced them that the Republicans in Washington needed to be deposed.Or maybe these voters are not paying attention to this stimulating debate like Loeffler’s ad Treat Warnock as a radical Or Warnock’s ad Portray yourself as a good dog owner.

second, Compared with the Democratic Party itself, voters may prefer the Democratic Party’s economic philosophy.

In the past few years, voting initiatives Raise the minimum wage and Expansion of Medicaid Legislators and governors in Republican states have passed conservative states that block similar policies. But Republicans still win elections in these areas. This happened in Florida this year. The Sunshine State passed a proposal to gradually increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2026. 61% of voters Embrace it. But Joe Biden, Who strongly supports a minimum wage of $15, In Florida only won 48% of the vote, while Trump’s 51%, the latter is more cautious about raising the minimum wage.

These voting patterns are another example of partisan prejudice over—or completely independent of—the voters’ policy preferences, but there are other potential reasons for this disconnect. Voters may support certain economic populist ideas, but if they elect a Democratic candidate, they may worry about too much economic populism. Some voters may support the Democratic Party’s economic populism, but not the party because it is too radical on issues such as abortion rights or public order.For example, in the 2016 election, New American scholar and FiveThirtyEight writer Lee Drutman found that voters who tend to be conservative on issues such as immigration but tend to be left-wing on economic issues are More likely to support Trump Hillary Clinton.Finally, many voters Not at all coordinated Which political party or candidate approves of which policy.

When you bring this to Georgia, you can easily imagine that some vacillating voters support paying the Americans $2,000, but are more supportive of supporting Republican Senate candidates and ensuring that Democrats in Washington cannot control the White House. with Both houses of Congress.

At last, Trump has disrupted politics in stimulating inspections.

You can also imagine that some voters are just confused about this issue. If Trump strongly supports the $2,000 check, and Loeffler and Perdue also support them, voters may not be fully aware that the broader Republican Party still opposes the payment and is an obstacle to their approval. Especially during Trump’s lame duck period, McConnell was the most important Republican in Washington in terms of policy. But in the context of most voters and the election, Trump is still the decisive figure of the party. If Trump announces that he supports a payment of $2,000, voters in Georgia may conclude that Republicans will support them more broadly, even if McConnell blocks the payment, and Loeffler and Perdue are effectively Help him do this, just like the situation here.

[What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us]

That being said, this debate on direct payments that occurred at the same time as the Georgia election shows how electoral politics and governance intersect in interesting ways.Although it is not clear whether the debate on stimulus payments will affect the election results, Yes Obviously, the upcoming elections have already affected the stimulus debate.According to reports, Republicans are worried Opposition to direct payments on the eve of the Georgia gameTo help ensure that most Americans’ $600 Included in the COVID-19 economic stimulus plan that Trump signed into law on SundayRepublicans are now worried that Georgia might cause an election backlash because of its opposition to the $2,000 payment. These election issues led to a break with McConnell and other Republicans by Loeffler and Perdue, who usually took a more conservative stance, and openly supported payments. (Of course, Loeffler and Perdue may agree to McConnell’s strategy to ensure that the $2,000 payment does not become law.)

So the Democrats may have figured out how to get more populist policies adopted: push them around election time. But even if Osov and Warnock win next week, the evidence that popular economic policies will automatically promote Democratic elections will be somewhat weak.

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