October brought an extraordinary surplus of precipitation of 33 percent for the country as a whole with the whole of Northwest India returning as a ‘big deficit’ while a symbolic regional deficit emerged in the three homogeneous geographical regions of Central, South, East and Northeast India.
The northeast monsoon holds strength in the southern peninsula with Andhra Pradesh and Telangana coasts being the only meteorological subsections while the rest all have so far a ‘normal’ or ‘surplus’ season so far with a full two months left Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics reveal.
deficits along the east coast
Above central India, the states of Odisha and Chhattisgarh suffer from a deficit that can be attributed to the same causes that apply to the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana located in the vicinity of the south and southwest. Flows in the Bay of Bengal have not yet formed during the northeast monsoon well in their favour. On Sunday, the southernmost low pressure area over Sri Lanka off Tamil Nadu gave time to move to the west. IMD said it will remain firmly anchored over the area for the next two to three days before moving forward.
Welcome rain to Coastal AP
IMD anticipates that its unique influence and coordinates may help further strengthen the eastern monsoon over northern peninsular India from Tuesday causing very heavy rains over southern inland, Tamil Nadu coast, Puducherry and Karaikal for several days from Sunday.
Isolated heavy rains are expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, inland south Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh coast, Yanam and Rayaalcima for the next five days, heavy isolation due to lack of rain in Telangana and coastal Karnataka from Tuesday to Thursday.
Scattered rain, thunderstorms and lightning are expected in southern Konkan, Goa, southern Madhya Maharashtra, Maratawada and Vidarbha.
The extended forecast for November 5-7 said moderately widespread rains are likely to be over the southern peninsula and spread over the islands, southern Maharashtra, Goa and southern Chhattisgarh.