At some point during the viewing window last Saturday afternoon, the underdog Navy advanced 28.5 points over Cincinnati 10-7, 38.5 points lost Kansas advanced Oklahoma 10-0 and 24.5 points lost Illinois tied Penn State 10-10 in the fourth quarter. Illinois was the only underdog that followed through on the upset, and it took an additional nine times to get there.
Illinois proved to be the biggest dog to take home the win last week. In 54 games, there were 16 surprises, including three with margins of 20 points or more. In addition to Illinois, Rice was a 24-point dog for the UAB and a winner, and New Mexico had a win over Wyoming as a loser by 20 points.
Here at The Vulnerable Challenge, we are tasked with the challenging task of spotting those disorders before they happen. The competition takes place as follows – each expert chooses three troubles per week. If an expert chooses a surprise correctly, he gets the number of points for which the team was not a candidate.
MORE: Against the spread selections of each of the top 25 games | pot forecast
Betting trends: Florida-Georgia | Michigan and Michigan | Pennsylvania – Ohio
Here’s our ranking after eight weeks.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.com
Bill Bender, college football writer
Temple (+10.5) vs. UCF
Temple hasn’t been consistent this season, but the 2-1 album is at home. This included a close win over Memphis. UCF is 0-3 on the road this season under head coach of the year Guus Malzan. Saturday will be rainy in Philadelphia, too. The temple draws annoyance.
Iowa (+3.5) in Wisconsin
This is tough for Hawkeyes on the road. Wisconsin has won four of the past five games, and both teams have solid defenses. It will come down to whichever quarterback makes the fewest fouls, and we think Iowa State comes with a game-changer here. The Hockey family regains control of Big Ten West.
Virginia (+2.5) in BYU
Bronco Mendenhall returns to Provo in what should be a late-night classic. The Cavaliers had a four-game winning streak, and their attack was designed for a game that should score in the 1930s. It’ll be soon, but look for Virginia to pull this off in the fourth quarter.
Mike Decoracy, Senior Writer
UCLA (+6.5) in Utah
No, I don’t know who the quarterback for the Bruins will be at this point. Anyone who wants to help me with that, feel free. What I do know is that Ethan Garbers’ performance in his cameo at the end of an Oregon game makes me feel as comfortable and confident as one can play as a quarterback (maybe). The Bruins showed some finesse early on and resilience late in the loss to the Ducks. They have the ability to win this game.
No. 8 Michigan (+4.5) vs No. 6 Michigan
Am I really supposed to miss an undefeated home team in a competitive game when the competition reward is so generous? Sorry, everything may have been designed to lure me in, but I have to ride with it. I know the Spartans don’t have a particularly dynamic attack and will do everything they can to make this game an idle, low possession, low target game. The celebration would at least be entertaining, if Sparti could make it happen.
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West Virginia (+6.5) vs No. 22 Iowa
What we really need is for Bob Huggins to be involved in trying to expand the college football playoffs. This could achieve two components that would benefit college athletics. First, people involved in a CFP may be fearful enough to listen to it; He can be a scary guy. Second, it will distract him from his project to destroy the NCAA Championship and turn it into a Class 5A Championship.
Bill Trucchi, Senior Editor
No. 8 Michigan (+4.5) vs No. 6 Michigan
You’re not a college football fan if you don’t count the hours until this starts. Teams have nearly identical point spreads in their three common opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska, and Northwestern), and MSU has that chic Miami blast on its resume. Both running games are great, but the Spartan advantage is in the QB, with Payton Thorne ranking second in the Big Ten in passing efficiency while Cade McNamara is ranked ninth. Add the house domain feature and we should have a Spartan party.
Miami (+9.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh
Take a big swing here. Mike Decoracy called it “pitting” a week ago. Quarterback Kenny Pickett is the darling of college football after saying he was celebrating Clemson’s victory with a “cold win” on national television last week. But Miami is quietly improving, having played Virginia, UNIK and One Sea State by three points in their last three games. The bright atmosphere may be at Heinz Field after Clemson’s big win at the Store. One stick steals.
Virginia Tech (+4.5) at Georgia Tech
Another team that is better than you think is Virginia Tech. Hockey led Notre Dame with eight goals in the fourth quarter before losing in the final, and led Syracuse with nine in the fourth quarter before losing in the last minute and losing to West Virginia with six goals after it was the first and a goal in the three. In the last minutes. You are what you are, but VT is close to being 6-1. Add a dash of “Win one for a hot seat coach” and you’ve got a recipe for upset.
Zach Khatib, Content Producer
Navy (+10.5) on Tulsa
The Navy is 1-5 this season, despite no lack of effort by the Marines: Ken Numatalulu’s team has lost in singles possession matches to No. 24 SMU (31-24) and to second-place Cincinnati (27-20) over the past three weeks. Both teams are better than Tulsa, which is 3-4 per season. The Golden Hurricanes have been going strong lately with back-to-back wins over Memphis and South Florida, and took a good time in Week 8 to prepare for the Triple Option. But we’ve seen teams stumble against it over and over again, with more time to prepare. Marines correct the ship.
No. 10 Ole Miss (+2.5) over No. 18 Auburn
Ole Miss vs. Auburn is the SEC’s first fight in Week 9. The Rebels and Tigers have frustratingly dual-threat creatives in Matt Corral and Bo Nix, respectively, so it’s an offensively-oriented battle. It’s cliched, but the team that plays the midfielder best is more likely to win. To that end, look for Corral (1913 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, one interception, 493 rushing yards and nine more) to outrun the Knicks (1,488 passing yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, 149 fast yards, two points) at closing. Rebel victory.
North Carolina (+3.5) at No. 11 Notre Dame
These teams were hard to tell in 2021. North Carolina had aspirations for the ACC Championship which quickly fell to the ground amid a 4-3 season, and Notre Dame 6-1 didn’t look as talented as they did in 2020. Again, I’m going with the team with Best midfielder: Sam Howell from UNC. He doesn’t have the season he had last year, but he still has 1,851 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to six interceptions in seven games, plus 494 fast yards and five more points. He should help lead the upset against Notre Dame High School without the safety of Kyle Hamilton.